Demographic, Social and Economic Development Analysis

Concepts and Analysis

Objective: To understand and predict the opportunities and constraints to social and economic development.

Demographics is important for understanding and predicting the opportunities and constraints to social and economic development. Issues such as the structure of the population, urban-rural migration, and population growth rates cannot be divorced from a country’s development potential. Demography permits a study of the characteristics, movements, and growth of populations, which interact bi-directionally with social, cultural, political, economic, and environmental development. Thus, it is well known that swelling urban populations place tremendous strain on resources, services, infrastructure, and the health of the environment. And most developing countries have a high proportion of population under the age of 25 twinned with under- or unemployment.

What is Social Exclusion?

Social exclusion contributes to inequitable social and economic development. Aptly defined by DFID, it is:

"A process by which certain groups are systematically disadvantaged because they are discriminated against on the basis of their ethnicity, race, religion, sexual orientation, caste, descent, gender, age, disability, HIV status, migrant status or where they live. Discrimination occurs in public institutions, such as the legal system or education and health services, as well as social institutions like the household.”

Social exclusion can be reinforced by policies and institutions that reflect social attitudes toward marginalized groups. In some cases, social exclusion represents systematic marginalization due to discrimination and stigma facing certain peoples. Other times, exclusion can result from the neglect and lack of awareness toward minority groups in institutional planning, policy or service delivery, Social exclusion can be seen through the persistent under-development of particular groups of people, and has the potential to erupt into violent conflict and insecurity.

Almost every country has at least one minority group, and even some regions of the world share a minority group. The Batwa in Central Africa and the Roma in Europe, for example, have long histories of social stigma and discrimination.

While social exclusion is a concept that applies at the level of society, many forms of exclusion may exist at different levels – within a household, a community, a livelihood system, a region of the country, etc. For this reason, all poverty statistics (read: the social indicators below) need to be disaggregated by gender and, where relevant, by age, socio-economic status, ethnicity, religion, etc., as a general rule and to the extent possible.

Analyzing Demographic, Social and Economic Development

Areas of Inquiry

Dimensions of analysis would include figures and trends in regards to:

Demographics and population;
National economy;
Poverty, livelihoods and food security;
Social development (re: education, health, as well as water, sanitation and hygiene); and
Cross-cutting dimension: social exclusion.

1. Demographics and population

Total population size
Population density (and correlated with poverty)
Population pyramid per sex, age group and spatial distribution (% of women of reproductive age 15-49, % of children under 5, urban versus rural)
Household heads disaggregated by education level (correlated with poverty groups)
% women-headed households, orphans/vulnerable children (OVCs), child-headed households, children in and on the street, elderly, disabled
Life expectancy at birth by sex
Fertility rate
Contraceptive prevalence rate
Urbanization rate and inter-regional migration
Ethnicity, indigenous minorities, clan, class, religion, livelihood groups (e.g. pastoralists, agriculturalists, fishing communities, etc. (correlated with wealth ranking)

2. National Economy

Main sectors of economy (primary, secondary and tertiary sectors) and distribution of population across sectors (% of women in labor force and across each sector)
Type of economy: liberal, state-owned and controlled, etc.
Special attention should be dedicated to extractive industries (e.g. oil and minerals, etc.) and their potential link to conflict or hazards
# of civil servants (and % of total labor force in formal sector)
Main cash and subsistence crops
Import/export and external debt
GDP, GDP per capita
% of adult population employed in formal and informal sectors; % self-employed
% of population in forced and / or exploitative labor (including children)
Wealth re-distribution per population categories and spatial
Role of private sector (including foreign investments)
Minimum wage and labor (conditions, unions, etc.) policies
Inflation and strength of currency
Infrastructural plans (roads, ports, railways, etc.)
Impact of economic integration in regional or international bodies (e.g. COMESA, NEPAD, Commonwealth, etc.)

3. Livelihoods and Food Security

Analysis of poverty statistics (sources: Human Poverty Index, poverty severity index, etc.): wealth ranking and % of population below poverty line (divided between poor and ultra poor or prosperity level, and to be correlated with data on demography and population below);
Analysis of poverty reduction and social protection strategies & their impact;
Policies in relation to land tenure and property rights;
National budget repartition per main sector (social sectors, defense, economic development, infrastructure, etc.);
Development expenditure as compared with government expenditure;
Social services expenditure as compared with development expenditure;
Reliance on external development aid (evolution of aid, main donors, main sectors, etc.);
Household expenditure on food, housing, education, health;
% of households that eat three meals a day;
Undernourished and malnourished CU5 & pregnant and lactating women;
Access to credit;
Livelihood strategies of the poor (subsistence agriculture, informal sector, petty trade, transactional sex, seasonal migration, definitive migration to urban centers, etc.)

4. Social Development

Education	Health	Water, Sanitation and Hygiene
Mean years of schooling Transition rates from one grade to another and from primary to secondary Primary and secondary school completion rate Ratio of boys to girls enrollment rate per grade in both primary and secondary Drop out rates in primary and secondary % 7-15 that is out of school Teacher/pupils ratio % of national budget spent on education sector Non formal education opportunities (e.g. vocational training) Is education free? Role of public and private sectors in education system Existence of schemes to support children’s access to schools Latrines and safe water in schools	Maternal mortality & infant mortality Average age of first pregnancy Birthrates HIV prevalence Adult and children morbidity Immunization rates among CU5 and pregnant women; # of health facilities (referral hospital, district hospital, health center, etc.) per # of population served Doctor/population ratio Midwife/population ratio Is health care free? Role of public and private sectors in health care system Existence of schemes to support access to health care (e.g. health insurance)	Access to safe drinking water Access to latrines and improved sanitation facilities Housing with (to be determined locally)

5. Social Exclusion

Inequality Measures

Political Participation and Representation

Based on the socio-economic indicators: What groups show particularly low indicators on poverty, livelihoods, food security and social development in relation to the national average?

How big are these gaps?
Have gaps been increasing or decreasing?
What are the total/group population characteristics, movement and growth? Are they concentrated in particular areas?
What are their core livelihood strategies?

As explored in the governance framework, all aspects of the political participation, inclusion in government, protection of their rights in policies, programs and legislation, and the representation and implementation of minority rights in the constitution should be investigated.

Related Tools

View more tools related to:

Macro-Level Analysis

Social / Economic Development

Social and economic development pertains to national level changes in the population’s standards of living, not only in monetary terms, but also in regard to health, education, sexual and reproductive health rights, as well as water, sanitation and hygiene. It is concerned not only with growth and human development but the wealth distribution in the country in support of equal socio- economic development for all.

Useful studies that collect social and economic development figures across time include:

The World Bank – World Development Indicators
United Nations Development Programme – Human Development Reports and Index
United Nations – Millennium Development Goals Indicators
Demographic and Health Surveys
National Government Bureaus of Statistics
Documents from various Ministries and governmental institutions

Resources

D Pinault with M Picard and D Wu (2011). Demographic, Social and Economic Development. From Situational Analysis for Program Design - methods guidance for macro, meso and micro levels. CARE: East and Central Africa Regional Management Unit.

Sources Cited

DFID (2005). Reducing poverty by tackling social exclusion: A DFID policy paper. Department for International Development.
For a useful guide with a collection of tools for conducting analysis on issues of social exclusion, please see the following site: http://www.gsdrc.org/go/topic-guides/social-exclusion